紅人規則 Redskins Rule

現在是美國總統選舉當天中午, 結果還沒公佈.

不管在哪裡，通常有一些選舉指標, 像是出口民調, 或者是施政滿意度等等. 在美國, 總總通選舉有一個很特別的指標, 而且這個指標有94%的正確率.

"紅人規則"

啥? 我記得我第一次聽到這個, 差點沒從椅子上摔下來. 可是當我看完他的準確度和佐證, 我又差一點從剛坐穩了的椅子上再摔下一次.

美國美式足球季從九月底到一月, 幾乎所以有比賽都是禮拜天, 除了少數比賽在禮拜四, 還有固定每個禮拜有一場比賽在禮拜一. 美國總統選舉一定是禮拜二. 選舉當天前一天晚上的周一美洲足球一定會把華盛頓紅人隊排為其中一隊. 根據紅人指標, 如果紅人隊贏球, 當時當政的政黨會贏得第二天的總統大選. 反之, 如果紅人隊輸球, 則會"變天".

這個指標從1936開始, 自紅人隊從勇士隊改名為紅人隊開始, 72年來有94%的準確率, 十七次只槓龜一次, 就是2004年, 當時紅人隊14:28慘敗給綠灣包裝人隊, 當然很多人都認為小布要下台了, 結果當然沒發生. 就這麼一次不準.

昨天晚上的周一美洲足球, 紅人隊6:23慘敗給匹茲堡鋼人隊. 這難道是預測歐巴馬贏了嗎? 哎呀, 身為馬侃支持者, 真是很尷尬呀.

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2004(唯一不準的一次)

Packers 28, Redskins 14

George W. Bush defeats john Kerry — Republicans DID NOT LOSE the White House

2000

Tennessee 27, Redskins 21

George W. Bush defeats Al Gore—Democrats lose the White House


1996

Redskins 31, Indianapolis 16

Bill Clinton defeats Bob Dole—Democrats keep the White House


1992

New York Giants 24, Redskins 7

Clinton defeats George H.W. Bush—Republicans lose the White House


1988

Redskins 27, New Orleans 24

George H.W. Bush defeats Michael Dukakis—Republicans keep the White House


1984

Redskins 27, Atlanta 14

Ronald Reagan defeats Walter Mondale—Republicans keep the White House


1980

Minnesota 39, Redskins 14

Ronald Reagan defeats Jimmy Carter—Democrats lose the White House


1976

Dallas 20, Redskins 7

Jimmy Carter defeats Gerald Ford—Republicans lose the White House


1972

Redskins 35, New York Jets 17

Richard Nixon defeats George McGovern—Republicans keep the White House


1968

Minnesota 27, Redskins 13

Richard Nixon defeats Hubert Humphrey—Democrats lose the White House


1964

Redskins 21, Philadelphia 10

Lyndon Johnson defeats Barry Goldwater—Democrats keep the White House


1960

Cleveland 31, Redskins 10

John Kennedy defeats Richard Nixon—the Republicans lose the White House


1956

Redskins 17, Chicago Cardinals 14

Dwight Eisenhower defeats Adlai Stevenson—Republicans keep the White House


1952

Pittsburgh 24, Redskins 23

Dwight Eisenhower defeats Adlai Stevenson—Democrats lose the White House


1948

Redskins 51, Boston Yanks 21

Harry Truman defeats Thomas Dewey—Democrats keep the White House


1944

Redskins 42, Chi-Pitt 20

Franklin Roosevelt defeats Thomas Dewey—Democrats keep the White House


1940

Washington Redskins 37, Pittsburgh 10

Franklin Roosevelt defeats Wendell Willkie—Democrats keep the White House


1936

Boston Redskins 13, Chicago Cardinals 10

Franklin Roosevelt defeats Alfred Landon—Democrats keep the White House


1932

Boston Braves 7, Chicago Bears 7

Franklin Roosevelt defeats Herbert Hoover—Republicans lose the White House

(資料出處: http://theologica.blogspot.com/2004/10/redskins-rule.html)